Data predicts 2m UK summer COVID cases with 10m isolating

• Two million people could contract COVID this summer, potentially meaning up to 10 million must isolate in just six weeks, Guardian analysis shows, prompting warnings over risks to health and disruption to the economy.
• The figures come as Sajid Javid, the health secretary, said England was entering 'uncharted territory' in its wholesale scrapping of lockdown rules from 19 July. New infections could easily rise above 100,000 a day over the summer, he said, more than at any point in the pandemic.
• Javid announced that anyone who has been double-vaccinated will not have to isolate after coming into contact with a confirmed COVID case from 16 August, with under 18s also exempt. The rule for adults applies at least 10 days after their second dose. Anyone who has caught COVID must still isolate by law.
• The Guardian understands ministers were warned that waiving the requirements for contacts to isolate immediately on 19 July would result in cases being up to 25% higher than if waiting another four weeks to do so.
• But the decision to wait before dropping the self-isolation rule, combined with soaring cases amid further unlocking, has triggered growing concerns over the toll of long COVID and potential chaos for businesses forced to close because of staff absences.

Travel and UK hospitality

• A decision on travel rules is set to be made on Wednesday, with minsters reportedly favouring a policy that would take effect before August to waive quarantine rules for double-vaccinated passengers from amber-list countries to England.
• UK Hospitality called for extra measures to protect a sector where 60% of workers are 16 to 34 years old - meaning many will not have been double-vaccinated by mid-August. Demands for self-isolation were causing 'carnage' even at existing infection rates, the trade body said.
• Ministers accept a rise in cases is inevitable as the country unlocks but argue the pace of vaccination means it will not be accompanied by significant hsopitalisations or deaths. The latest official data however, shows the number of people who are in hospital with COVID has increased by 38% in the past week to 1,988 - the fastest rate of increase since last October.
• Downing Street also regards a summer reopening as potentially less risky than delaying until the autumn when it could coincide with unvaccinated children returning to the classroom, and seasonal flu.
• Speaking in the House of Commons on Tuesday, Javid said he was 'very up front' about the trajectory for infections. 'This pandemic is far from over and we will continue to proceed with caution. But we are increasingly confident that our plan is working, and that we can soon begin a new chapter, based on the foundations of personal responsibility and common sense rather than the blunt instrument of rules and regulations,' he said.
• Coronavirus infections are currently running at just under 29,000 a day UK-wide, and the health secretary told MPs that modelling suggested the figure could reach 50,000 a day by 19 July and then 100,000 a day later in the summer.
• This would not overwhelm the health service, Javid said, because the vaccination programme had become a 'wall' against mass severe illness and deaths: 'jab by jab, brick by brick, we have been building a defence against the virus.'
• But 100,000 cases a day would be unprecedented during the pandemic in the UK, which hit a daily peak of just over 81,000 in late December.