The world is nowhere near the end of the COVID pandemic, says famed epidemiologist Larry Brilliant

• The pandemic is not coming to an end soon - given that only a small proportion of the world population has been vaccinated against Covid-19, a well-known epidemiologist told CNBC.
• Larry Brilliant, an epidemiologist who was part of the World Health Organization's team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant of the coronavirus is 'maybe the most contagious virus ever.'
• In recent months, the USA, India and China, as well as other countries in Europe, Africa and Asia have been grappling with a highly transmissable delta variant of the virus.
• WHO declared Covid-19 a global pandemic in March 2020 - after the disease, which first emerged in China in late 2019, spread throughout the world.
• The good news is that vaccines - particularly those using messenger RNA technology and the one by Johnson & Johnson - are holding up against the delta variant, Brilliant told CNBC's 'Street Signs' on Friday.
• Still, only 15% of the world's population has been vaccinated and more than 100 countries have inoculated less than 5% of their people, Brilliant noted.
• 'I think we're closer to the beginning than we are to the end of the pandemic, and that's not because the variant that we're looking at right now is going to last that long,' Brilliant said, who is now the founder and CEO of a pandemic response consultancy, Pandefense Advisory.
• 'Unless we vaccinate everyone in 200 plus countries, there will still be new variants,' he said, predicting that the coronavirus will eventually become a 'forever virus' like influenza.

Probability of a 'super variant'

• Brilliant said his models in the Covid outbreak in San Francisco and New York predict an 'inverted V-shape epidemic curve.' That implies that infections increase very quickly, but would also decline very rapidly, he explained.
• If the prediction turns out to be true, it means that the delta variant spreads so quickly that 'it basically runs out of candidates' to infect, explained Brilliant.
• There appears to be a similar pattern in the UK and India, where the spread of the delta variant has receded from recent highs.
• Daily reported cases in the UK - on a seven day moving average basis - fell from a peak of around 47,700 cases on July 21 to around 26,000 cases on Thursday, according to statistics compiled by online database Our World in Data.
• In India, the seven day moving average of daily reported cases has stayed below 50,000 since June - far below the peak of more than 390,000 a day in May, the data showed.
• 'The may mean that this is a six-month phenomenon in a country, rather than a two-year phenomenon. But I do caution people that this is the delta variant and we have not yet run out of Greek letters so there may be more to come,' he said.
• The epidemiologist said there is a low probability that a 'super variant' may emerge and vaccines don't work against it. While it is hard to predict these things, he added it's a non-zero probability, which means it cannot be ruled out.
• 'It's such a catastrophic event should it occur, we have to do everything possible to prevent it,' said Brilliant. 'And that means get everyone vaccinated - not just in your neighbourhood, not just in your family, not just in your country but all the world over.

COVID-19 vaccine boosters

• Some countries with relatively high vaccination rates such as the USA and Israel are planning booster shots for their population. Others, such as Haiti, only recently secured their first batch of vaccine doses.
• WHO has called on wealthy countries to hold off on Covid vaccine boosters to give low income countries a chance to vaccinate their people.
• But in addition to boosting vaccination in countries with a low inoculation rate, Brilliant said one group of people needs a booster shot 'right away' - those who are 65 years and above, and were fully vaccinated more than six months ago but have a weakened immune system.
• 'It is in this category of people that we've seen the creation of multiple mutations when the virus goes through their bodies,' said the epidemiologist.
• 'So those people, I would say, should be given a third dose, a booster right away - as quickly as moving the vaccines to those countries that haven't had the chance to buy them or have access to them. I consider those two things about equal,' he said.

CNBC 8 August