"COVID-19 Lockdown Exit Analysis" 28th Nov 2022
Lockdown Exit
Shanghai rocked by protests as zero-Covid anger spreads
Protests in Shanghai escalated on Sunday evening as police struggled to disperse large crowds who gathered in the city, part of a nationwide movement that poses one of the most brazen challenges to the Chinese Communist party’s authority in decades. The unrest began on Saturday night and centred on a road named after the Chinese city of Urumqi, where a deadly fire on Thursday killed ten people. That incident, in the northwestern Xinjiang region, fuelled social media outrage and prompted a series of vigils around the country, as people blamed coronavirus restrictions for the tragedy — allegations that the authorities denied.
Study says as Covid evolves in long-term infections it may become more harmful
A South African laboratory study using Covid-19 samples from an immunosupressed individual over six months showed that the virus evolved to become more pathogenic, indicating that a new variant could cause more illness than the current predominant omicron strain. The study, conducted by the same laboratory that was to first test the omicron strain against vaccines last year, used samples from a person infected with HIV. Over the six months the virus initially caused the same level of cell fusion and death as the omicron BA.1 strain, but as it evolved those levels rose to become similar to the first version of Covid-19 identified in Wuhan in China.
China Covid-19 Cases Hit Record High, Forcing Fresh Control Measures
China’s new Covid-19 cases hit a record high, testing the government’s push to contain the virus with more-targeted virus controls and avoid damaging the economy. Almost 30,000 locally transmitted infections were recorded for Wednesday, surpassing the previous record in April, when Shanghai’s two-month lockdown severely hurt China’s economy and snarled global supply chains. Economists say the risk that China’s “zero-Covid” policy will again force officials to impose sweeping measures is one of the main threats to world growth. China’s leaders this month told local officials to be more precise and targeted in implementing pandemic controls, but at the same time said there would be no change to the zero-Covid stance. As new variants send cases surging, more cities are tightening controls on people’s mov
China Recovery Set Back by Record Covid Outbreak as Lockdowns Spread
Widespread lockdowns imposed across China as authorities there struggled this week to contain the country’s largest Covid-19 outbreak threaten to again create uncertainty in global supply chains and dim the prospects for world economic growth. Beijing’s battle to contain the virus—including sharp restrictions on everyday life and commerce in cities from the major port city of Tianjin in the north to Guangzhou in the south—comes as economies elsewhere lose speed as central banks raise interest rates to beat back inflation.
The heavy-handed and widely applied steps send a strong signal that the country and its leaders aren’t ready for a sustained reopening almost three years after the start of the pandemic and long after other major economies have dismantled almost all Covid controls.
China's iPhone City Locks Down Urban Areas as Covid Cases Rise
Zhengzhou, home to Apple Inc.’s largest iPhone manufacturing site, will be largely locked down for five days as officials in the Chinese city resort to tighter curbs to quell a swelling Covid-19 outbreak. Mobility controls -- a euphemism for lockdown -- will be imposed in the main urban areas of Zhengzhou from Friday through Nov. 29 because of rising virus cases, Zhengzhou’s pandemic task force said in a statement late Wednesday. The city reported 996 infections on Wednesday, up from 813 a day earlier. The new restrictions were announced after hundreds of workers at the plant, known as ‘iPhone City’ for its scale, streamed out of dormitories earlier in the day.
China Sees Lockdowns Surge in Week Since Covid Policy Adjusted
Covid control restrictions now weigh on a fifth of China’s economy as infections continue their upward march, defying the central government’s call for more targeted, less disruptive Covid Zero measures. There were 27,307 new cases recorded for Monday, just shy of the previous record 28,973 reached in April when Shanghai’s outbreak sparked a surge in infections. The southern manufacturing hub of Guangzhou remains the epicenter of the current wave, reporting the bulk of the 8,588 infections in the broader Guangdong province. The metropolis of Chongqing detected 6,297.
Exit Strategies
COVID-19 tracker: Japan logs 97679 cases, up 20700 from week earlier
Japan reported 97,679 new COVID-19 cases Sunday, up about 20,700 from a week before, as the country appeared to be in the midst of an eighth wave of infections.
There were 96 fatal cases. The number of severely ill coronavirus patients rose by five from Saturday to 308. Tokyo confirmed 10,346 new cases of COVID-19 on Sunday, up by about 2,600 from a week before.
China reports fourth straight daily record of new COVID cases
China reported its fourth straight daily record of 39,791 new COVID-19 infections on Nov. 26, of which 3,709 were symptomatic and 36,082 were asymptomatic, the National Health Commission said on Sunday. That is compared with 35,183 new cases a day earlier – 3,474 symptomatic and 31,709 asymptomatic infections, which China counts separately. Excluding imported infections, China reported 39,506 new local cases, of which 3,648 were symptomatic and 35,858 were asymptomatic, up from 34,909 a day earlier.
China's Central Bank Takes Action as Record Covid-19 Outbreak Hits Economy
China’s central bank moved to backstop growth by boosting lending to households and businesses, as the world’s second-largest economy struggles with its biggest Covid-19 outbreak since the pandemic began. Economists said the shift in policy will likely have limited impact, as repeated lockdowns, a continuing real-estate crunch and fading demand for Chinese exports mean appetite for loans is weak.
Still, the move—telegraphed earlier in the week by China’s State Council, which acts as its cabinet—nonetheless underlines the darkening outlook for growth as authorities tighten restrictions across the country to stamp out record infections.
'We've totally confused residents': China's Covid policy flip-flop stokes frustration
City of Shijiazhuang has shut down, opened up and closed again in 9 days as country battles near record outbreak
Novavax ends COVID vaccine sale agreement with Gavi
Novavax Inc said on Monday it had delivered a written notice to Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, terminating with immediate effect an agreement for the sale of the company's COVID-19 vaccine to low- and middle-income countries. The company cited Gavi's failure to procure the 350 million doses it had agreed to buy in May last year for the COVAX facility.
The COVAX facility is a joint program between Gavi, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations for the equitable distribution of COVID vaccines in poorer countries.
China Covid Zero Returns as Deaths Emerge, Raising Reopening Doubt
Barely a week in, China’s lighter-touch Covid Zero policy is already running into trouble. Surging infections are threatening to overwhelm some of the country’s biggest and most important cities, with local officials stymied over how to control the contagion without the usual tools of mass citywide testing and snap lockdowns. Three Covid deaths in the capital Beijing, the first in more than six months, provided a reality check for a population that’s been shielded from the pathogen by the stringent approach.
Breakingviews - Investors ignore China COVID spike at their peril
The blistering relief rally underway in Chinese equities is understandable. President Xi Jinping had implemented a mixture of harsh policies targeting Covid-19, technology entrepreneurs and real estate developers that kept equity indexes in the basement and aggravated capital flight – roughly $101 billion was pulled out the country, reading between the lines of official balance of payments data for the first six months of the year. Tentative relaxations on all the main fronts have investors cheering; the Golden Dragon index of New York-listed Chinese companies is up 37% since late October. Yet biology could ruin this party yet.
Partisan Exits
Chinese Protests Spread Over Government's Covid Restrictions
Protests are erupting in major cities in China over President Xi Jinping’s zero-tolerance approach to Covid-19, an unusual show of defiance in the country as the economic and social costs from snap lockdowns and other strict restrictions escalate.
Demonstrations occurred throughout the weekend in Beijing, Shanghai and the eastern city of Nanjing, according to witness accounts. Video footage and photos circulating on social media, which The Wall Street Journal wasn’t able to independently verify, suggest protests broke out in several other cities, including Wuhan, the original epicenter of the pandemic.
The protests followed demonstrations on Friday in Urumqi, capital of the remote region of Xinjiang, where a deadly fire enraged residents who had struggled with lockdowns of more than 100 days. Residents flooded social media with comments suggesting that Covid restrictions contributed to a delay in putting out the fire, in which officials said 10 people died.
Videos Show How Covid Protests Are Spreading Across China
Since Friday, opposition against China’s zero-tolerance Covid policies has been gathering steam across the vast country. Protesters have taken to the streets in a public outpouring of anger and frustration, with some even calling for President Xi Jinping to step down, a level of national dissent unheard of since he took power a decade ago. Others have clashed with officials at residential compounds, defying orders to go into quarantine, while students have also been demonstrating at university campuses.
Chinese Protesters Use Tricks to Evade Censors, Vent Covid Anger
Many are posting a blank white image on social media in defiance of officials who are deleting content so quickly that some internet users complained nothing meaningful could be expressed at all. One video featured a blank piece of paper on WeChat with the caption “Silence speaks louder here, those who understand know.” It was deleted. Others are posting a single, seemingly innocuous word, repeated many times, including “good,” “okay,” or “sure,” as a sarcastic expression of discontent.
Blank sheets of paper become symbol of defiance in China protests
Chinese protesters have turned to blank sheets of paper to express their anger over COVID-19 restrictions in a rare, widespread outpouring of public dissent that has gone beyond social media to some of China's streets and top universities.
Images and videos circulated online showed students at universities in cities including Nanjing and Beijing holding up blank sheets of paper in silent protest, a tactic used in part to evade censorship or arrest.
Huge COVID protests erupt in China's Xinjiang after deadly fire
Public anger in China towards widening COVID-19 lockdowns across the country erupted into rare protests in China’s far western Xinjiang region and the country's capital of Beijing, as nationwide infections set another record. Crowds took to the streets on Friday night in Xinjiang's capital of Urumqi, chanting "End the lockdown!" and pumping their fists in the air, after a deadly fire on Thursday triggered anger over their prolonged COVID-19 lockdown according to videos circulated on Chinese social media on Friday night.
Protests erupt in Xinjiang and Beijing after deadly fire
Public anger in China towards widening COVID-19 lockdowns across the country erupted into rare protests in China’s far western Xinjiang region and the country's capital of Beijing, as nationwide infections set another record. Crowds took to the streets on Friday night in Xinjiang's capital of Urumqi, chanting "End the lockdown!" and pumping their fists in the air, after a deadly fire on Thursday triggered anger over their prolonged COVID-19 lockdown according to videos circulated on Chinese social media on Friday night.
China's Covid protests grow after apartment blaze kills 10
Scenes of protest from the locked-down western Chinese city of Urumqi have spread on social media after a fire killed 10 people, as nationwide unrest over the country’s strict Covid policies continues to build. Social media posts alleged that restrictions in the capital of Xinjiang province, which has been locked down since August, hampered rescue efforts and the ability of residents to escape the fire in an apartment block on Thursday evening. Unverified videos of protests in the city on Friday evening were widely circulated. Officials on Saturday denied some of the claims about the fire and said certain images online of locked doors were fake, China’s state media agency Xinhua reported.
Beijing reports 424 symptomatic, 1436 asymptomatic COVID cases for Nov 24
China's capital Beijing reported 424 symptomatic new locally transmitted COVID-19 infections and 1,436 asymptomatic cases for Nov. 24, local government authorities said on Friday. This compared with 509 symptomatic and 1,139 asymptomatic cases the day before. Authorities said 400 cases on Thursday were found outside quarantined areas.
Beijing shuts parks, museums as China's COVID cases rise
Beijing shut parks and museums on Tuesday and Shanghai tightened rules for people entering the city as Chinese authorities grapple with a spike in COVID-19 cases that has deepened concern about the economy and dimmed hopes for a quick reopening. China reported 28,127 new domestically transmitted cases for Monday, nearing its daily peak from April, with infections in the southern city of Guangzhou and the southwestern municipality of Chongqing accounting for about half the total.
Continued Lockdown
Philippines logs 1326 new COVID-19 cases, 23 deaths
The Philippines reported 1,326 new COVID-19 infections on Sunday, pushing the number of confirmed cases in the Southeast Asian country to 4,033,682. The Department of Health said the number of active cases rose to 18,482, while 23 more patients died from COVID-19 complications, pushing the country's death toll to 64,594. Metro Manila, the capital region with over 13 million people, tallied 457 new cases. The Philippines reported its highest COVID-19 single-day tally of 39,004 new cases on Jan. 15. The country, with a population of around 110 million, has fully vaccinated over 73.7 million people
Scientific Viewpoint
New coronavirus at 'particular risk' of jumping to humans discovered in Chinese bats
A new virus with similarities to Coronavirus has been identified in bats with the potential to jump to humans and livestock, according to new research. Chinese and Australian scientists took samples from 149 bats across Yunnan province in China, bordering Laos and Myanmar, and identified five viruses “likely to be pathogenic to humans or livestock”. One virus, known as BtSY2, is closely related to SARS-CoV-2 (which causes Covid-19) and is "at particular risk for emergence." Professor Eddie Holmes, an evolutionary biologist and virologist at the University of Sydney and co-author of the report said: “This means that Sars-Cov-2-like viruses are still circulating in Chinese bats and continue to pose an emergence risk."
Blood clot drug totally ineffective as post-Covid treatment, research finds
A drug to reduce blood clots, widely prescribed to Covid-19 patients after discharge from hospital, does not lessen their chances of readmission or improve survival, according to groundbreaking research which is set to change treatment protocols around the world. The results of the UK-wide trial, led by Addenbrooke’s Hospital and the University of Cambridge, were shared with the Financial Times. They found that prescribing the anticoagulant Apixaban did not help patients recovering from moderate and severe Covid and in a small number of cases caused serious harm.
COVID-19 SeroHub, an online repository of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies in the United States | Scientific Data
Seroprevalence studies provide useful information about the proportion of the population either vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2, previously infected with the virus, or both. Numerous studies have been conducted in the United States, but differ substantially by dates of enrollment, target population, geographic location, age distribution, and assays used. This can make it challenging to identify and synthesize available seroprevalence data by geographic region or to compare infection-induced versus combined infection- and vaccination-induced seroprevalence. To facilitate public access and understanding, the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed the COVID-19 Seroprevalence Studies Hub (COVID-19 SeroHub, https://covid19serohub.nih.gov/), a data repository in which seroprevalence studies are systematically identified, extracted using a standard format, and summarized through an interactive interface.
Bivalent Covid Boosters Give Some Protection in CDC Study, But Not Much
Covid-19 boosters from Moderna Inc. and the partnership of Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE that fight the latest omicron variants provide only modest short-term protection against mild infections, and experts say it’s still unclear whether the updated shots are any better than earlier versions at preventing hospitalization and severe illness. The bivalent boosters were just 43% effective at preventing mild illness compared to receiving no vaccine in adults 49 and under, according to a US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study published Tuesday. In those aged 50 to 64 years, comparative protection against symptomatic Covid was 28%, while the booster was just 22% protective in adults 65 and older, the study showed.
Is Covid-19 an Endemic Disease and What Does It Mean for the World?
Most of the world is done with Covid-19, though it clearly isn’t done with the world. Countries with the notable exception of China in 2022 unwound a bevy of restrictions designed to contain the coronavirus that causes Covid, and even China loosened its stern rules a bit. For the most part, political leaders and their constituents were eager to pivot to accepting Covid as an endemic disease, much like seasonal flu, even though the World Health Organization continued to designate SARS-CoV-2 a public health emergency of international concern.
Coronavirus Resurgence
The U.S. is 'certainly' still in a Covid-19 pandemic, Dr. Fauci says
Dr. Anthony Fauci said the U.S. is “certainly” still in the middle of a Covid-19 pandemic and he is “very troubled” by the divisive state of American politics. “I don’t care if you’re a far-right Republican or a far-left Democrat, everybody deserves to have the safety of good public health and that’s not happening.”
Protests in Shanghai and Beijing as anger over China's COVID curbs mounts
Hundreds of demonstrators and police clashed in Shanghai on Sunday night as protests over China's stringent COVID restrictions flared for a third day and spread to several cities in the wake of a deadly fire in the country's far west. The wave of civil disobedience is unprecedented in mainland China since President Xi Jinping assumed power a decade ago, as frustration mounts over his signature zero-COVID policy nearly three years into the pandemic. The COVID measures are also exacting a heavy toll on the world's second-largest economy.
China's Covid Cases Jump to a Record as Outbreaks Persist
China’s daily Covid infections climbed to a record high, exceeding the previous peak in April, as it battles an outbreak that has grown since the country adopted a more targeted approach to containing the virus. The country reported 29,754 new cases for Wednesday, more than the 28,973 infections recorded in mid-April when the financial hub of Shanghai was in the midst of a grueling two-month lockdown that saw residents struggle to access food and medical services. China’s official figures separately report symptomatic and asymptomatic patients, which can lead to inflated numbers when people are re-classified after developing symptoms.
Health visitors warn of 'lasting impact' of Covid-19 on families
The Covid-19 pandemic is having a “lasting impact” on the health and wellbeing of children, health visitors have warned in a new report. The report, published by the Institute of Health Visiting and the First 1001 Days Movement, surveyed 555 professionals from across the UK, with more than half of them health visitors, on the effect of the pandemic on babies, young children, their carers, and the health services that support them.
China's COVID infections hit record as economic outlook darkens
China reported record high COVID-19 infections on Thursday, with cities nationwide imposing localised lockdowns, mass testing and other curbs that are fuelling frustration and darkening the outlook for the world's second largest economy. The resurgence of infections, nearly three years after the pandemic emerged in the central city of Wuhan, casts doubt on investor hopes for China to ease its rigid zero-COVID policy soon, despite recent more targeted measures.
China Covid Cases Hit Record, Topping Shanghai Omicron Outbreak
China’s daily Covid infections climbed to a record high, exceeding the previous peak in April, as it battles an outbreak that has grown since the country adopted a more targeted approach to containing the virus. The country reported 29,754 new cases for Wednesday, more than the 28,973 infections recorded in mid-April when the financial hub of Shanghai was in the midst of a grueling two-month lockdown that saw residents struggle to access food and medical services. China’s official figures separately report symptomatic and asymptomatic patients, which can lead to inflated numbers when people are re-classified after developing symptoms. The Bloomberg News tally counts all local cases, regardless of symptoms, and removes the double-counting issue.
China’s Covid Curbs Return as Deaths Emerge, Casting Reopening Into Doubt
Barely a week in, China’s lighter-touch Covid Zero policy is already running into trouble. Surging infections are threatening to overwhelm some of the country’s biggest and most important cities, with local officials stymied over how to control the contagion without the usual tools of mass citywide testing and snap lockdowns. Three Covid deaths in the capital Beijing, the first in more than six months, provided a reality check for a population that’s been shielded from the pathogen by the stringent approach.